Are you prepared? Try out the attached spreadsheet and let me know of any errors.
Are you prepared? Try out the attached spreadsheet and let me know of any errors.
Below is a nice spin from a recently published article in the Atlanta Business Journal:
Atlantans are charging up a storm again, indicating continued recovery from the Great Recession, according to the latest National Consumer Credit Trends report from Equifax Inc. (NYSE: EFX).
Metro Atlantans’ credit card debt jumped 7.4 percent to $10.9 billion in the second quarter. This echoed the national trend — up 5 percent to $634 billion.
“Every major market has seen increases in credit card debt, even those cities where the housing market issues are not completely resolved,” said Assad Lazarus, interim unit leader of Equifax Personal Information Solutions. “This shows that American consumers are more confident about their financial futures, and that means the U.S. economy has entered an expansion mode… These trends suggest that American consumers are getting on with their lives”
This news is not something to be proud of unless your business is dependent on consumer credit. The average credit card debt per HH is now $15,800. The average credit card interest rate is 15%. Therefore, the average HH is paying $200/month in interest or $2,400 annually. This is approximately 6% of the average HH take-home pay.
On average, our recession happen every 57 months and last for 13 months. As of today, we are at 74 months since the last recession.
Can your HH survive 13 months with no paycheck?
GET RID OF DUMB DEBT!
Rising rates erode capital value of fixed income, creating a difficult dichotomy for investors to navigate.
Results from the Edward Jones survey show just how deeply investor confusion runs.
One-third of the 1,008 respondents between the ages of 18 and 34 said they have “no idea” how the changing rate environment will impact their investments.
While understanding grew in older age groups, fully 63 percent said they don’t know how higher rates will affect investment portfolios such as 401(k) plans, pensions and individual retirement accounts.
Edward Jones has cut its long-term allocation in fixed-income portfolios from 35 percent to 25 percent.
When you think about managing your net worth, you’re likely thinking about the assets side of your balance sheet. But net worth is assets minus debt. If you’re focused only on one side of your balance sheet, you may be missing half the picture. The key is to understand your debt-to-Income ratio. Do you know yours?
Start with the household pre-tax annual income. Combine annual expense amounts of mortgage/rent, homeowners/renters insurance, real estate property taxes, and necessary utilities (gas, electric).
The results of dividing annual expenses into annual pre-tax income is your front-end ratio. This ratio should never be above 28%.
Your back-end ratio is calculated using the annual expenses noted above plus credit card payments, car payments, student loans, child support, alimony and any other monthly contractual obligations. This ratio should never be greater than 36%,
Learning to live like no one else, so later you can give like no one else. Give 10%, save 10% and live on the rest. You will never regret it.
Small investors are borrowing against their portfolios at a rapid clip, reaching levels of debt not seen since the financial crisis.
The trend-driven by a combination of rising stock values and rock-bottom interest rates-is sparking a growing debate among market watchers: Is it a sign of investors’ increasing confidence or a warning that the Fed’s easy-money policies are creating a bubble mentality.
This continues to show the irresponsibility of many individuals. Greed is the only description for someone that would use leverage to invest in the stock market.
Interested in a guaranteed ROI equal to a 30 year treasury plus 75% of remaining profits? We are looking for long-term investors to purchase commercial real estate with investment grade tenants. Call me if interested at 678-403-2084 or email me at brian.scully.
Your money is not at risk, It is secured by real estate.
1. What Are Investment-Grade, Long-Term NNN Triple Net Leases?
2. Benefits of Investment-Grade, Long-Term NNN Triple Net Leases
3. Drawbacks of Investment-Grade, NNN Long-Term Triple Net Leases
4. Other Considerations of Long-Term NNN Triple Net Leases
This article is being written during one of the most tumultuous and difficult economic times throughout our nation’s history. Though many economists are calling for a recovery in early 2011, we believe that the market is headed for more trouble throughout the next several years. Both the residential and commercial real estate markets will continue to be heavily affected by this ongoing economic downturn. We do not believe that we have hit a sustainable bottom in real estate markets, and we have prepared our clients accordingly.
Investors motivated to sell now to avoid additional losses may still utilize 1031, 1033, or721 exchanges. In light of the current real estate market conditions, we are encouraging clients to consider investment-grade, long-term triple net leased real estate.
“Investment-grade, long-term triple net leases” is a term that refers to the primary aspects of a particular lease structure. “Investment-grade” describes the qualities of the tenant with which the lease is made. “Long-term” refers to the general length of the lease, and “triple net” refers to the structure of the lease obligations.
Investment-Grade: Investment-grade leases are leases to tenants that maintain a credit rating of BBB- or higher. This investment rating is given by S&P’s, Moody’s, or Fitch, and it represents a company’s ability to repay its obligations. BBB- represents a “good credit rating” according to the rating agencies. Typically, only larger, national companies maintain these stronger credit ratings.
Regional tenants and franchises are too small for the rating agencies to track. Therefore, in most cases, it is recommended that your lease is corporate-backed — backed by the parent company and not just a regional franchisee. There is a very big difference between the credit and strength of a regional McDonald’s franchise owner and the McDonald’s Corporation. The corporate parent generally will provide greater rent stability in the midst of economic downturns. Rent stability also translates into greater stability for the value and price of your real estate. The price of your asset is directly tied to the income it produces and the likelihood of that income continuing for a future buyer. Read more about corporate credit ratings now→
Long-term: Typically, “long-term” describes a fixed-length obligation in lease term at or beyond 10 years. Some brokers or advisors may include lease options as a part of the fixed lease term. It is important to distinguish between the options and obligations. If the tenant has the option to renew for 5 more years after an initial 5-year term, the lease term should be considered a 5-year lease with another 5 years in options — not a 10-year lease. Find out rent terms and how long the tenant is obligated to pay. It makes all the difference when considering your risk, returns, ability to obtain financing, and your ultimate ability to resell the property for a profit.
Triple Net: Triple-Net (or “NNN”) leases are leases whereby the tenant is responsible for all operating expenses, including taxes, insurance, the structure, and the roof. A pure NNN lease that will cover these costs throughout the term of the lease is often referred to as an “absolute NNN lease.” Some leases are called “triple net” that do not include the expenses of the roof or structure of a building. These types of leases are more accurately referred to as “modified NNN” or “double-net” leases.
It is important to differentiate lease types when considering investment property. Many brokers refer to both pure triple-net and modified double-net leases as the same type of lease. There is a very big difference! Roof and structure repairs can be very costly and may provide your tenant an early out for their lease obligations if the structure is not maintained properly. We believe that it is typically best to invest in pure NNN leases, leaving all of the operating and structural expenses to the tenant. Modified NNN leases can be appropriate if the structure and roof are relatively new and if they come with substantial, long-term guarantees of quality and maintenance from the original installation company or developer. Read about how toanalyze triple net lease terms now→
Stability: Investment-grade, long-term triple net leases can provide stability of income and value to investors despite difficult economic circumstances. The lease payments typically are backed by some of the country’s strongest corporations. Whereas smaller, regional tenants (or even individuals in apartment assets) may struggle to make rent payments, large, profitable, and well-capitalized companies are often in a much better position to maintain their obligations despite the economy’s twists and turns. A strong tenant tied to a long-term lease can significantly reduce an investor’s downside exposure in a volatile market.
Predictability: By their very structure, long-term triple net properties allow investors to predict, far in advance, their future stream of lease payments throughout the lease term. All of the terms, payments, increases, etc. are defined ahead of time in the lease agreement. Whereas an apartment complex may have to lower rents in light of the downturn as the leases come up every 6 to 12 months, the typical NNN lease agreement is longer and tied to the strength of the company’s entire balance sheet. Although a NNN lease agreement may be renegotiated, these investments remain our asset of choice in an unpredictable economy.
Simplicity: Long-term NNN leases are generally simple to manage, as most of the operational, maintenance, tax, and insurance obligations fall to the tenant. The landlord is responsible to provide the real estate as agreed upon at the initial term of the lease. The maintenance and insurance are the tenant’s responsibility, and if the property is damaged, the tenant would be responsible to maintain and restore the property for their use at their own expense. With many absolute NNN lease agreements, the tenant must continue to make lease payments to the landlord even if their building is no longer operational. In summary, triple-net leases provide owners with simplicity and the ability to enjoy the benefits of real estate ownership without many of the major management headaches (tenants, toilets, trash, termites, etc.).
Single-Tenant Dependence: The largest drawback to investment-grade, long-term triple net leased real estate is that if your primary tenant defaults, it can be very difficult to find another tenant to replace the original. If financing is tied to the property, it can add significant stress to your cash flow as you continue to service your debt while finding another tenant. Additionally, the new tenant will require some level of tenant improvements—funds that are used to prepare the space for the new tenant’s specific floor plan and setup.
Upside Limitations: The same benefits that provide stability and downside protection also provide a limit to your upside potential. Unlike apartments or commercial property with shorter-term leases that can be increased consistently with an increasing market, long-term NNN leases are fixed for extended periods of time that do not allow for reactions to short-term market fluctuations. Therefore, it is rare for a long-term NNN investor to experience tremendous upside appreciation upon reselling the asset. Though there are often rental increases as part of the contractual lease obligation, these rental increases are typically limited to 1–2% per year for stronger tenants.
An investor may get more upside out of this type of investment during instances of heavy discounting due to market turmoil. Our current market is providing examples of opportunities that can be created when sellers are forced to dispose of their strong assets at a discount to raise capital for their other portfolio needs and cash shortfalls. This phenomenon is allowing prepared investors to take advantage of market discounts and get more favorable prices and lease terms than would have been otherwise available in a stronger market.
Location: The strength of a tenant or lease terms does not eliminate the need for proper research and due diligence on a property’s location. Real estate is driven ultimately by demand. Commercial real estate is largely driven by its ability to provide consistent, reliable, and increasing income. Income is driven by a tenant’s desire to take space in a particular location, and income is increased and made more secure when that tenant demand is consistent, increasing, and spreading to a growing number of participants. Tenant demand is driven by their ability to make a profit in a particular retail location, which is tied to the income growth and consumer traffic of the area. Income growth and consumer presence is directly tied to the job growth and population growth concentrated in the particular area. At the end of the day, we can target which areas will receive strong tenant demand and real estate rental growth by tracking population and job growth as the primary determinants of consumer demand for a particular location. Therefore, we arrive back to three most important aspects of all real estate: location, location, location.
The location must not only provide consumer and commercial demand, but it is also wise to ensure that a particular property location is important to the parent corporation. For instance, when Starbucks decided to close more than 600 stores nationwide, it chose the assets that were losing money—that were not vital to operations. If possible, determine how well a particular location is performing for the corporation. It may be difficult to get these numbers, but it may be possible to survey the amount of retail traffic and consumer business conducted at that particular location. When we assist our clients in locating suitable replacement property, we seek to provide them with properties that have strong tenants, strong lease terms, and strong locations.
Balance Sheet Strength: Investment-grade ratings are not enough to determine a tenant’s strength! Credit ratings can be used effectively to weed out weaker tenants yet should not be relied upon solely to choose viable tenants. Investors must consider the company’s financial statements to make a suitable investment determination. Companies with an investment-grade credit rating have balance sheets, statements of income, and statements of cash flow that are publicly available. It is important to understand a tenant’s current assets, cash equivalents, and liabilities. In other words, how much cash do they have on hand? What liabilities are they going to have to pay into the future? Are they heavily indebted? Is their revenue subject to decline? Are their expenses rising materially? Each of these questions should be answered before an investor makes the decision to depend upon the company’s abilities to meet its obligations. We encourage our clients to have a CPA review the tenant company’s financials before they make their investment decision.
Business Strength: “Business strength” refers to a company’s ability to generate ongoing revenues through its primary operations. A company may have a strong balance sheet and an investment-grade credit rating, but if its primary business is facing risks of obsolescence, intense competition, major trend changes, financial pressures, or government interference not previously experienced, it may be best for an investor to pass. Avoid the risk if the company cannot shift its business quickly enough to avert major operational and fiscal issues. Our clients often target those companies that provide necessity products and services such as food, groceries, gas, pharmaceuticals, healthcare and medical supplies, discount clothing, discount domestic and home improvement supplies, discount automobile supplies and repair, transportation and information carrier services, and infrastructure and utilities equipment and services. While we believe that there are certainly other types of companies that can do well in stronger markets, we believe that sticking to consumer necessities will help protect our clients from initial and ongoing effects of a downturn.
Brian Scully, Director
Silver Oak Advisors
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